UK Offshore Gambling Turnover Forecast to Reach £36 Billion by 2031, Potentially Impacting Regulated Markets

A recent report from H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC), prepared for the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), forecasts a significant increase in the turnover generated by UK players with offshore gambling operators. The report projects that this figure, representing the total amount staked, could climb from £16.6 billion to £36 billion by 2031. This trend highlights a growing shift of gambling activity away from the regulated UK market, a development attributed in part to recent tax policy adjustments.

The H2GC analysis distinguishes between turnover (total stakes) and Gross Gaming Yield (GGY), which is the operators’ revenue. While the £36 billion figure refers to turnover, the offshore GGY is also expected to rise, from £685 million in 2025 to £1.4 billion by 2031. This growth rate, approximately 13% compound annual, suggests that the gap between offshore and onshore activity is not narrowing.

Drivers Behind the Shift

A primary reason cited by H2GC for this acceleration in offshore gambling is the UK’s changing tax policy. Remote gaming duty increased from 21% to 40% on April 1, 2026, with remote betting duty scheduled to follow, rising to 25% on April 1, 2027. These tax hikes are anticipated to reduce onshore iGaming GGY, with a forecast dip of 1% in 2026 and a further 5% in 2027. This nominal 6% decline translates to an estimated 11% reduction when accounting for inflation and an even larger effective tax headwind of 15% to 20% when underlying market growth is considered.

This situation creates a competitive disadvantage for regulated UK operators, as they face higher costs that offshore platforms do not. Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of the Betting and Gaming Council, commented on the report’s findings, stating that these tax increases are “handing illegal gambling operators a competitive advantage.” She warned that “Britain will lose jobs, investment and tax revenue, while consumers are pushed towards operators offering none of the protections found in the regulated market.”

Channelisation and Customer Activity

The report also details the decline in “channelisation,” which refers to the share of gambling revenue that remains with licensed UK operators. In 2019, onshore GGY channelisation stood at 97%. This is projected to fall to 92% by 2025 and an alarming 85% by 2031. On a turnover basis, onshore channelisation is expected to drop from 90% in 2025 to 78% by 2031.

H2GC’s methodology for assessing offshore activity involves a “bottom-up” approach, including web audits of operators targeting the UK, desk searches of commonly referenced affiliate sites, SEO keyword analysis, and bespoke site traffic analysis. For 2025, this analysis indicated that 96.0% of customer activity was with licensed UK sites, while 4.0% was with unlicensed sites. However, H2GC applies a multiplier, assuming offshore customers spend twice as much on average, converting the 96.0% customer activity share into a 92.3% share of GGY for licensed sites.

Key facts

Implications for Video Poker Players

For video poker players in the UK, this trend could mean a shift in available options and increased exposure to unregulated sites. While regulated platforms offer consumer protections, fair play standards, and responsible gambling tools, offshore operators may not adhere to the same stringent requirements. This could lead to risks such as unfair game odds, difficulties with withdrawals, and a lack of support for problem gambling. Players interested in video poker strategy and fair play should remain vigilant about the platforms they choose, prioritizing licensed and regulated operators to ensure a secure and equitable gaming experience. The ongoing shift highlights the potential for a less secure gambling environment for those who migrate to offshore sites.

Source: European Gaming, https://europeangaming.eu/portal/latest-news/2026/07/22/209620/uk-offshore-gambling-turnover-forecast-2031/